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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-444).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -436 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -444.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Zach Ertz has totaled a whopping 53.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for tight ends.

  • Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
  • THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (22.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.1% in games he has played).
  • The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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