Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-444).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -436 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -444.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Zach Ertz has totaled a whopping 53.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (22.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.1% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.