Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-435).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +266 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has posted a colossal 58.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (23.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (32.4% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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