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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+218/-335).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -312 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -335.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Zach Ertz has totaled significantly more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).

Zach Ertz's 47.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 42.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (23.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.5% in games he has played).

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (54.9%) versus tight ends this year (54.9%).

The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least passing TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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