Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+248/-401).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +263 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +248.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 25.47 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Zach Ertz has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Zach Ertz has accrued a monstrous 50.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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