Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+303/-540).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +303.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has put up a colossal 57.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 97th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (24.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.1% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) to TEs this year (62.3%).
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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