Zach Ertz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+244/-392).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +251 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +244.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.