Will Levis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Will Levis

NFL · Player Props

Will Levis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Will Levis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This year, the porous Atlanta Falcons defense has been torched for a staggering 1.57 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).

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