Will Dissly Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Will Dissly

NFL · Player Props

Will Dissly

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Will Dissly Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a heavy -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
With an exceptional 90.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (90th percentile) this year, Will Dissly stands as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 56.0 plays per game.
Will Dissly's 6.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 15.6.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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