Will Dissly Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Will Dissly

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Will Dissly Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+358/-708).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +387 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +358.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Will Dissly has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (7.0 per game).
Will Dissly's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 11.6.
Will Dissly's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 80.8% to 93.3%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Will Dissly to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (10.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.6% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.