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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Colts defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Van Jefferson comes in as one of the bottom WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 1.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Van Jefferson is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing a measly 48.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 14th percentile among wideouts

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