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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-146/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Van Jefferson to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack in this week's contest (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (7.9% in games he has played).

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been terrible last year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Van Jefferson ranks as one of the bottom pass-catching WRs last year, averaging a lowly 0.6 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 5th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.9%) versus WRs last year (60.9%).

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