Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The model projects Van Jefferson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this game (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).
This year, the porous Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a massive 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Van Jefferson's receiving talent has worsened this season, notching just 1.1 adjusted catches vs 2.4 last season.
With a subpar 52.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (20th percentile) this year, Van Jefferson places among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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