Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 6th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
Van Jefferson has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack this year (10.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (16.1%).
The Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Van Jefferson's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 54.4% to 49.6%.

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