Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-141/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.7%) vs. WRs this year (70.7%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Van Jefferson's 8.8% Target% this season illustrates an impressive decrease in his air attack utilization over last season's 16.1% figure.
Van Jefferson's 1.0 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a material regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 2.4 figure.
Van Jefferson grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 51.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among wideouts

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