Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-185/+141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing offense this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Van Jefferson's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 54.9% to 50.4%.

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