Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70.9%) versus wideouts this year (70.9%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
Van Jefferson has gone out for fewer passes this season (75.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (86.7%).

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