Van Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB John Wolford in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Rams have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.9% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.9 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Van Jefferson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 47.5%.
The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on just 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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