Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Van Jefferson has run a route on 90.1% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
Van Jefferson has posted a colossal 64.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 8.95 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Van Jefferson has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 54.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile among WRs
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in football.