Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Bryce Perkins this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Rams are a giant 16.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Van Jefferson has accrued far fewer air yards this season (57.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Van Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 55.1% to 43.3%.
Van Jefferson's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a mere 5.54 yards-per-target vs a 7.48 mark last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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