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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-487).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +296 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Van Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

Van Jefferson ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per snap.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

Van Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (74.0 per game).

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Van Jefferson's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 54.9% to 48.3%.

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