Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are anticipated by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 68.5 plays per game.
Since the start of last season, the weak Packers defense has been gouged for a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bears to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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