Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Jets defense has allowed a colossal 2.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (53.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bears.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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