Tyson Bagent Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to run on 45.3% of their plays: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (144 per game) against the Jets defense since the start of last season.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, New York's LB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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