Tyson Bagent Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

My Account Messages Log Out

reorder

Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 199.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 274.5 @ -1685 before it was bet down to 199.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.92 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

More Tyson Bagent Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow