Tyson Bagent Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

Pass Attempts

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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