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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.2% pass rate.

Tyreek Hill's 67.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 77.5.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.

Tyreek Hill's receiving talent has declined this season, accumulating a mere 4.2 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last season.

Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 71.2% to 53.4%.

More Tyreek Hill Player Props

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