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Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Miami Dolphins may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to accumulate 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.The Patriots linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Tyreek Hill's 65.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 77.5.The Miami O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
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