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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats inflated) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to garner 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (just 56.5 per game on average).

Tyreek Hill's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.2% to 53.4%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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