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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-141/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

The leading projections forecast Tyreek Hill to accumulate 11.1 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 32.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

Tyreek Hill's 52.1% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a meaningful drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 71.2% figure.

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