Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Tyreek Hill is anticipated by the model to place in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 10.0 targets.
Tyreek Hill rates in the 98th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 77.7 mark this year.
Tyreek Hill has been among the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 7.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Tyreek Hill's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 70.8% to 73.9%.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Carolina's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.19 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.

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