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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Tyreek Hill has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this season (33.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.6%).

Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 8.5 yards per game compared to a mere 5.6 last year.

Tyreek Hill has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 74.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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