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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 9.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 29.3% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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