Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to notch 11.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.9%) vs. wideouts this year (63.9%).
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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