Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +151 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
Tyreek Hill has totaled a monstrous 107.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill's 67.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for WRs.
Tyreek Hill grades out in the 93rd percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Tyreek Hill has been been lightly used his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among wideouts.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

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