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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (26.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.3% in games he has played).

Tyreek Hill has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (131.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).

Tyreek Hill's 78.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 66.1.

Tyreek Hill's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 72.7% to 76.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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