Tyquan Thornton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+334/-631).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +346 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +334.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.0%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.