Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Tyler Lockett is projected by the model to position himself in the 80th percentile among wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
With an impressive 22.8% Target% (86th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett stands among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (only 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.3 per game) this year.
Tyler Lockett's 70.2% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a material drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 75.8% mark.
This year, the formidable Browns defense has yielded a feeble 47.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the smallest rate in the league.

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