Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
Our trusted projections expect Tyler Lockett to garner 8.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
With a top-tier 23.1% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett has been among the wideouts with the most usage in football.
Tyler Lockett grades out as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Tyler Lockett's 69.3% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a a remarkable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 75.8% rate.

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