Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 3, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The predictive model expects Tyler Lockett to accumulate 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett's 57.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 85th percentile for wideouts.
Tyler Lockett has been among the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Tyler Lockett's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.8% to 62.3%.
The Giants pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.5%).

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