Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive -9.5-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seattle Seahawks.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Tyler Lockett is expected by the projection model to place in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.7 targets.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.
Tyler Lockett's 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful decline in his receiving skills over last year's 75.8% rate.
The Cowboys pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (56.9%) to WRs this year (56.9%).
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Dallas's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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