Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett has been among the best WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 5.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Tyler Lockett's 56.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 63.7.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.