Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+195/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -222 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (20.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).
Tyler Lockett's 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 89th percentile for WRs.
Tyler Lockett's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 69.4% to 78.9%.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Tyler Lockett has totaled far fewer air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.4%) versus WRs this year (60.4%).

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