Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-414).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -404 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -414.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Tyler Lockett has accrued a monstrous 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett's 62.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 92nd percentile for WRs.
Tyler Lockett grades out in the 93rd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.47 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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