Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-255).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Tyler Lockett's 57.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 85th percentile for wide receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Tyler Lockett's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 69.4% to 75.4%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.8 plays per game.
Tyler Lockett has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.77 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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