Tyler Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Johnson

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 2:23 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-996).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +436.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 3rd-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.24 per game since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Johnson ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).

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