Tyler Higbee Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 10, 2026 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+590/-641).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) last year.
When talking about air yards, Tyler Higbee ranks in the towering 75th percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a striking 21.0 per game.
With a terrific ratio of 0.30 per game through the air (84th percentile), Tyler Higbee stands as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.
Last year, the feeble 49ers defense has allowed a whopping 0.59 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
While Tyler Higbee has accounted for 12.5% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Los Angeles's passing offense near the goal line in this game at 6.5%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.5%) versus TEs last year (70.5%).