Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.4%) versus TEs since the start of last season (67.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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