Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
Tyler Higbee has gone out for fewer passes this season (82.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (69.7%).
In this week's game, Tyler Higbee is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 26.8 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Tyler Higbee's receiving skills have worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.9 adjusted receptions compared to 4.4 last season.
With a weak 66.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, Tyler Higbee has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends.

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