Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to earn 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has been a much bigger part of his team's air attack this year (22.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.5%).
Tyler Higbee's receiving performance has gotten better this season, compiling 5.5 yards per game compared to a mere 3.4 last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 68.8%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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