Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to earn 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this season (25.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.5%).
Tyler Higbee's receiving skills have been refined this season, totaling 6.5 yards per game compared to just 3.4 last season.

Favors Under

The Rams are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Tyler Higbee's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 71.0%.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.

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